AL East Sleepers: Baltimore Orioles

Starting this season, the Orioles will be one of the more interesting teams in the division for what should be the better part of the decade. The top of the minors are awash with upper echelon pitching prospects (Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta) to go along with plenty of reinforcements in the low minors. The lineup card is stocked with building blocks that are either locked up long-term (Nick Markakis) or have just started their arbitration clock (Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold).

While the 2010 season may not be the year of the Oriole, it will be a significant landmark in the progress of the club. The team is not expected to “compete” in the classical sense, in that they will still likely finish either fourth or fifth behind the Sox, Rays, and Yanks. Yet, the team could, with a couple of breaks in the right direction, finish with a .500 record – the first time Baltimore has done so since 1997.

Now, on to the sleepers:

C Matt Wieters: This one should come as no surprise. Coming into 2009, Wieters was at the top of nearly every meaningful prospect list known to man. Switch-hitting catchers with the plate discipline, power, AND defensive capabilities of a Matt Wieters come around once in a generation. Accordingly, he was expected to perform much better than he ultimately did, .288/.340/.412. Even the perennially underwhelming and modest PECOTA projections pegged Wieters to hit 30 home runs…

Super Advertising Sporting Event Squares

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don’t sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding?

10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation.
Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he’s paid his dues over the past decade.

Remembering Nomar Garciaparra in Boston

One of the more interesting names in Red Sox history with an origin from his fathers first name turned backwards and his last name is a combination of his parents last names. He was not only an elite athlete, but with a 4.0 GPA in high school and majored in business management at Georgia Tech. He was then drafted 12th overall by the Boston Red Sox in 1994 with the 12th overall pick.

After three years in the minors he made his first full season in 1997 with the Red Sox. He led the league in AB, hits and triples. He won the rookie of the year award and was voted 8th in the MVP award voting. His season would only be a taste of what was to coma as over the next 6 seasons he would total 40.6 WAR according to Sean Smith’s WAR calculations.

This amazing 7 year span even includes his forgettable 2001 season including the Sports Illustrated cover, a wrist injury and only 21 games played. That’s how great he really was and comparing him to Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez he was right in the middle with Rodriguez totaling 54 WAR in his first seven full years and Jeter with 35.1.

While in Boston he was often known for his first pitch swings and infield pop ups, but that never hurt his production. He was not much for taking walks with a career BB% of 6.6%, but much like Dustin Pedroia he could hit most anything around the plate. He only struck out 10% of the time on average.

Is Clay Buchholz’s change-up responsible for lefty struggles?

Clay Buchholz is poised to take another step forward this year as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. He spent much of the first half of 2009 dominating Triple-A competition, and finally got his shot when Tim Wakefield experienced injury problems most of the second half.

His “emergence” wasn’t much of a surprise despite his godawful 6.75 ERA in 15 starts and one relief appearance during 2008, as his Fielding Independent Pitching was 4.69 and xFIP (FIP with home runs normalized to park and league data) 4.28 over 76 innings. Those respective FIPs were 4.69 and 4.09, respectively, covering 92 innings in 2009 with a 4.21 ERA all told.

An aspect to Buchholz’s game I don’t think has been made enough of, however, is his inability to pitch against left-handers. Okay, inability is a bit strong, so let’s go clear deficiency compared to right-handed batters.

Projecting the Yankees number five pitcher

Joba Chamberlain finally got his full season to start and things didn’t turn out as the Yankees had hoped. His splits crashed and he wasn’t the same pitcher. At the same time Phil Hughes established himself in the bullpen after being unable to stay healthy in the starting role.

In the minors Chamberlain had an elite strikeout rate and continued to show that in the majors as a reliever. Overall a pitcher will always have lower strikeout rate as a starter and you can see that in his career K/9 as a starter in the majors at 8.4, while 11.9 as a reliever. That number is still a great number, but something happened this year. His K/9 dropped to 7.61 and his walks rose as well.

This has to be partly due to his loss in velocity going from 97 in 2007 to 95 in 2008. He then dropped to 92.5 this year as a full time starter. There is obviously some velocity drop being a starter to preserve his arm. I have the feeling this amount has some to do with his shoulder problems in 2008.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade Honorable Mention Vote

Now that the All-Aughts Team of the Decade roster is complete, it’s time to fill out the two remaining spots available: honorable mention and dishonorable mention. We’re tackling the former today.

The Red Sox have players worthy of being immortalized on the Team of the Decade even though they didn’t crack the roster. Below are the five candidates eligible for honorable mention. Please take your time and vote for the candidate you feel belongs on the roster, either at the end of this article or on the right sidebar, near the top.

AL East Sleepers: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

For a team that, in any given year, is a collection of sleepers, this team has a number of high-upside contributors looking for either a rebound or breakout season. For the Rays to compete, they will need every player on the roster firing at all cylinders as the 2010 season is going to be – in all likelihood – the most competitive it has been since the 1990s.

Both the Red Sox and Yankees have restocked, the Rays have plugged up their disappointments and shored up their injuries, while the Orioles just got a serious infusion of young talent. The Blue Jays are still an NL West contender in any given year.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade Manager: Terry Francona

In 2004, Boston hired Terry Francona as manager, who had a nasty experience managing the Phillies in their down years, but also had experience managing superstars, such as Michael Jordan in the White Sox’s farm system. He had been training in Oakland, learning from Billy Beane and others. His reputation was one of a balanced background: using statistics to shape his decisions, but leaving plenty of room for the human element.

The going was a bit tough early on for Francona, although largely exacerbated by the awful choice of having Dale Sveum as the third-base coach. Where was Wavin’ Wendell when you needed him? Of course, he made far more right decisions than wrong, steering the club to a World Series title and should receive massive credit for his handling of the situation the Sox found themselves in during the playoffs, down three games to none in the best-of-seven ALCS.

Francona was at times — and still is, to this day — called Francoma for some questionable decisions he makes that is rooted in both the human element of the game and his ability to remain steady and even-keeled day in and day out, understanding the bigger picture.

PECOTA confirms our thoughts on 2010 and Clay Buchholz

This week the PECOTA projections were run through with depth charts and attempted to project final standings based on opening day expected rosters. Obviously trades, injuries and breakout/slumps will change these results, but so far they have the Red Sox at 95-67 finishing in second place. Of course the big surprise is who is in first. PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to finish at 96-66 winning the East with the Red Sox as the favorite for the wild card.

So where are the Yankees? Third place with a record of 93-69 and out of the playoffs. OK so 3 wins separating the three is not something to bet on, but confirms what we have said all along. The Red Sox have changed their strengths, but maintained their ability to win 95 games and make the playoffs.

Tim Wakefield to be full-time member of the rotation?

In several pieces (here’s the ESPN Boston one) over the last couple days, it has been made clear by Tim Wakefield that he expects to serve as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. Coming off of back surgery in October, he expects to enter spring training healthy. This is a situation that is going to have to be resolved one way or the other. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and John Lackey aren’t going anywhere and it’s difficult to imagine Daisuke Matsuzaka not being in the rotation. All indications are that the club is moving forward with Clay Buchholz as a long-term, permanent member of the rotation as well. So… where’s the give? Where’s the solution. Something’s gotta happen.I don’t see any way that Wakefield doesn’t open the season in the bullpen (barring injury). Anyone have any thoughts?